Global Macro

Money написа:

Bloomberg написа:Although the Great Resignation is a phenomenon among those who are younger than 40, it’s also reverberating across the economy and forcing a broader conversation about work. Millennials (born between 1980 and the late 1990s) and Generation Z (the demographic cohort after them) tend to marry, buy houses, and have children later than their forebears—if at all.

China’s “lie flat” movement, jump-started by a social media post from which it got its name, is also about opting out. It’s a reaction against a system in which a grueling “996” work schedule—9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week—is common in industries like technology. So is unrelenting pressure from family, society, and even the government to keep climbing the ladder.

Bloomberg написа:Almost half of the world’s workers are considering quitting, according to a Microsoft Corp. survey. About 4 in 10 millennial and Gen Z respondents say they’d leave their job if asked to come back to the office full time, a global survey by advisory company Qualtrics International Inc. found—more than any other generation.

Bloomberg написа:“I haven’t been working for two years, and I don’t see anything wrong with this,” read the April post on the Baidu Tieba platform that sent lie flat viral. “Pressure mainly comes from comparisons with your peers and the values of the older generations. But we don’t have to follow them.”

The poster, who went by the name Kind-Hearted Traveler, drew a comparison with the ancient Greek philosopher Diogenes, an ascetic who lived in a barrel. “Lying flat is my philosophical movement.”

pipbel написа:

Абе кога пък рънътъ стана толкова слабоважна, че да не е в кор спай....смешници

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 6.8% in November compared to last year, marking the fastest annual increase since June 1982. This rate matched consensus economists' estimates, according to Bloomberg data, but accelerated compared to the 6.2% year-over-year rate from the prior month.

Even excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 4.9% over last year for the fastest increase in about three decades.

pipbel написа:

Money написа:

Тука не мисля баш така, че точно било само колкото да се запълни дупката.
Пляснал някаква хамава графика ( и то само 3г) и уж някакъв тренд...не останах убеден.

Линк TalkTheMarkets написа:https://talkmarkets.com/content/productivity-decreases-the-most-since-1960-but-labor-costs-surge-96-whats-going-on?post=337068&page=2 

Productivity Decreases the Most Since 1960 but Labor Costs Surge 9.6%, What's Going On?

In the scramble to find workers, employers are accepting nearly everyone who applies and at increasing pay levels. New employees are not well-trained and are not as productive, yet they cost more.
Three rounds of stimulus paid millions of workers more being unemployed than employed. They have not all returned to work and some won't. This puts upward pressure on wages.
Child tax credits come into play. Biden wants to extend them. Pay people enough not to work and some won't.
Job jumping compounds the problem. Even skilled labor is not as productive initially in a new environment.
Shortages impact output. For example, if you need a chip, you can't finish a car.
Boomer retirements. Skilled boomers are retiring en masse. They are replaced by less skilled labor.

Money написа:

David Beckworth написа:Yes, we had helicopter drops & supportive monetary policy, but they only restored the economy's dollar size to its trend. They plugged a hole. They didn't create above-trend spending, like we saw in the 1970s, which is needed to create a permanently ↑ trend inflation rate.

David Beckworth написа:Yes, we had helicopter drops & supportive monetary policy, but they only restored the economy's dollar size to its trend. They plugged a hole. They didn't create above-trend spending, like we saw in the 1970s, which is needed to create a permanently ↑ trend inflation rate.

David Beckworth написа:The composition change effect on inflation can be seen below. Most of the inflation is coming from goods inflation, especially durable goods. Similar story when thinking about commodity prices.

Bloomberg написа:Goldman Cuts U.S. GDP Forecast, Saying Omicron Is Drag on Growth

In a weekend report to clients, economist Joseph Briggs said Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. gross domestic product to expand 3.8% this year, down from 4.2%. It reduced its 2022 estimate to 2.9% from 3.3%.

Bloomberg написа:Briggs saw a mixed effect on inflation. While virus-sensitive sectors such as travel may be hit, further shortages of supplies and labor could push up prices in a more lasting way, he said.

Money (Admin) написа:Ще ти отговоря с този туит. Тази “хипер”-инфлация ще отшуми без да има и едно дигане на Fed funds rate.

Интересното е, че Дарио Пъркинс ми е последовател в туитър, а също и авторът на статията, към която си пуснал линк - журналистът от Блумбърг, Steve Matthews. И с двамата сме имали twitter exchanges от време на време. С Дарио доста по-често.  

Пип, ти не си расист, аз знам... но нали знаеш Bostic... в смисъл как така взимаш за чиста монета какво е казал точно той?  

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation