NYSE (daily chat)

pipbel написа:

Seems so...

And нихт ферщеен фъкинг дойчо

volaswap написа:
get in here

https://sg-zertifikate.de/product-details/SF6DCP

no hikes relevant

pipbel написа:

To и аз съм съгласен с него, ама е повече в минало време това.
След 6 хайка планирани за 22 и 23г положението няма да е баш същото.
За мен и половината на тях е прекомерно и ще ни вкара в рецесия. Май и пазара струва ми се мисли нещо подобно...или поне почва да няма доверие на преценката на фед...затова и жълтия дори пълзи нагоре тия дни.

Money написа:
Инак съм съгласен с това - stay invested in risk assets.

volaswap написа:
Plenty of people are calling for an imminent stock market crash, but they are missing a key point: inflation-adjusted interest rates are still way below the estimated equilibrium levels! Why does that matter?

Real yields are very relevant for savers, investors, borrowers and asset class valuations: it's not only the absolute level that matters though, but also the relative level against the equilibrium real interest rate (r*).

A very low absolute risk-free real interest rate matters because:

1) It punishes savers and investors by rewarding very little (or even inflicting negative returns) on savings and risk-free investments

2) It helps borrowers to significantly reduce their real debt servicing cost, as debts are inflated away while nominal interest rate costs remain low. With the same real income, borrowers are now able to ''afford'' more leverage as servicing costs get reduced (notice: savers are punished by # 1, but they also get the benefits of # 2)

3) As long as earnings and nominal economic activity deliver, very low risk-free real interest rates will help drive portfolio inflows into risk assets and encourage higher valuations.

But it's not all about the absolute level: real yields relative to the equilibrium level r* are also very important.

R-star is the equilibrium real interest rate the economy can withstand while generating its potential, long-term growth and without overheating or cooling down too much.
R* is influenced by long-term drivers of real economic growth, and in particular by the growth of the active workforce (labor supply growth), its productivity and capital productivity.

The equilibrium rate r* has obviously been trending down fast over the last 40 years as our active workforce keeps growing less and less (ageing population), disruptive technologies advance at a very fast pace and capital misallocation is all over the place.

Hence, lower real yields are just a strong trend likely to stay but what matters is ''how low'' they are against estimates of r* -> my own model points to r* being around 0.25% in the US, and a negative (!) number in EU.

Nevertheless, observed real yields are now very low not only in absolute terms, but also against r*.

In 2013 (taper tantrum) and 2018 (equity market sell-off), real rates significantly overshoot r* for a while causing distress in the system which ultimately turned into risk-off episodes.

Today, US real yields are 100 bps+ below estimated equilibrium levels and that implies that monetary and financial conditions are still very loose: the doomsayers might have to wait a bit longer.

pipbel написа:Mишо, някакъв коментар по представянето на асет класовете след фед новините ?
Не го ли намираш за... weird

pipbel написа:Mишо, някакъв коментар по представянето на асет класовете след фед новините ?
Не го ли намираш за... weird

Morgan Stanley reiterates Disney as overweight
Morgan Stanley kept its buy rating on Disney and said it sees more upside in the stock in 2022.
“As part of our Year-Ahead Outlook, we 1) present the key questions weighing on sentiment, 2) take a deep dive into content spending, and 3) update our forecast. While we trim our legacy earnings outlook, we think shares have overreacted and see over 20% upside in shares from here, remain OW.”

пич написа:IBM държи в този спад, не мърда. Който си е железен, си е железен. Логиката е при ръст да изхвърчи като тапа.

Money написа:Ама виж какво става тука изведнъж… някакви инсайдърчета да не би да продават…?