Global Macro

FT написа:Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said that by being “deliberately vague”, Powell was keeping all of the Fed’s policy options open at a time when the economic outlook was historically difficult to assess.

Bloomberg написа:

Historical Strength

History indicates that 2022 is likely to end on a better foot than it started. U.S. stocks have historically performed well during periods when the Fed raised rates, as a growing economy tends to support corporate profit growth and the stock market. In fact, stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Fed rate hike cycles since the 1950s and delivered positive returns in 11 of those instances, according to Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. The one exception was during the 1972-1974 period, which coincided with the 1973-1975 recession.

CNBC написа:

• Japan’s wholesale prices rose 8.5% in December from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, increasing for a 10th month in a sign higher raw material and fuel costs continued to weigh on corporate margins.
  
  

CNBC написа:But the persistent cost pressures, coupled with a weak yen that inflates the price of imported goods, add to the pain for the world’s third-largest economy as it emerges from a consumption slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic.


“Raw material prices remain at high levels, so final goods prices will continue to face upward pressure,” said Toru Suehiro, senior economist at Daiwa Securities.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/14/japans-wholesale-prices-rise-for-10th-month-weighs-on-corporate-margins.html

Money написа:Пип, върха на долара го изтървахме... нищо, че горе-долу правилно го преценихме къде ще е... 

volaswap написа:
Kuehne + Nagel =

Money написа:Подобрение при веригите за доставка няма и експертине не очкават подобрението да дойде скоро. 

FT написа:However, easing congestion in the US appears far from simple. Joerg Wolle, Kuehne + Nagel chair, says that inefficiency at the ports and the truck driver shortage — neither of which have short-term fixes — mean the system has been unable to cope with the demand surge.

Wolle hopes for some slackening of labour tightness with the gradual return of workers but believes it will take time: “we will be lucky and happy if we see a real relief [in the system] by autumn.”

https://www.ft.com/content/21242e3b-298b-4a6f-a35f-32fdde905952

pipbel написа:
Mда, забрави. Ке си седим и ке си връткаме туй онуй дорде станем на 70-75 ( живот и здраве само да е) бе тръпка си е
Ма не и след тия години че ще ни хване деменцията...

Money написа:Ранно пенсиониране. На мене също ми се върти в главата тази идея, макар че няма да е точно “пенсиониране” в истинския смисъл на думата

Barron's написа:Are worries about inflation’s impact on corporate earnings misplaced?

So few analysts know how to model a company anymore. I was trained by people who built their careers in the 1970s. It comes down to understanding how costs flow through an income statement. People think if PPI [the producer price index] is up 4% and inflation is up 4%, earnings don’t grow. That is absolutely wrong. Every company has a fixed cost structure that doesn’t move with inflation. We see this in the data: Corporate profits in the 1970s grew just as fast as inflation did—and the stock market grew just as fast as earnings.

The linchpin of this market is—and has been—corporate earnings. It’s totally reasonable to think about $240 for S&P 500 earnings next year; the Street is at $222. For perspective, we were at $162 to $163 in years prior to the pandemic. We have set a new step function in corporate earnings—and it seems permanent.

Philippine inflation was the slowest in a year last month, giving the central bank an opportunity to support growth with record-low interest rates and withstand pressure from a tightening global monetary policy environment.

Easing inflation was due to slower increases in food and transport costs in December, according to the statistics authority. Full-year 2021 inflation was at 4.5%.