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Писане by Money Пет Ное 12, 2021 11:25 pm

Временната липса на работна ръка в щатите може да се окаже не толкова временна.

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Писане by Money Пет Ное 12, 2021 8:44 pm

Защото приемам, че инфлацията в случая идва предимно от supply chain disruptions и че е supply-side проблем. А дигането на лихвите няма как да помогне да се отстранят тези проблеми, даже може да ги задълбочат.

Може да се мисли също и че проблемът идва от променения патерн на търсенето. Хората сега изведнъж са почнали да потребяват много повече стоки, отколко услуги заради пандемията и инфраструктурата не може да насмогне.

Но ти би ли казал, че американската или другите големи икономики са прегряли в традиционния смисъл на думата? Според мене изобщо случаят не е такъв и затова инфлационният спайк е по-добре да се остави да си отшуми от само себе си отколкото да се охлажда една (като цяло) и без това не чак толкова прегряла икономика (с уговорката, че някои сегменти вероятно наистина са прегряли).

pipbel написа:
Money написа:Според мене хайковете в случая са безсмислени и ако ги направят наистина пазарът ще реагира доста негативно.

Я заеби онова глупаво П мерене с ЕД-то и дай малко по подробна обосновка на горното, защо мислиш така ? Ще ми е интересно.
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Писане by pipbel Пет Ное 12, 2021 8:01 pm

Money написа:Според мене хайковете в случая са безсмислени и ако ги направят наистина пазарът ще реагира доста негативно.

Я заеби онова глупаво П мерене с ЕД-то и дай малко по подробна обосновка на горното, защо мислиш така ? Ще ми е интересно.
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Писане by pipbel Чет Ное 11, 2021 5:57 pm

Мишов, коментар на макрото на този...

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Shuts Down: Here Is Russell Clark's Farewell Letter

Clark's final message to investors is below:

The fund lost 5.30% this month, mainly from the short book.

After a couple of years of turbulent markets and the increasing influence of politics rather than economics on the markets, I have come to the decision that the best way forward is for the Fund Directors to wind up the fund and return capital.

The success I enjoyed from 2011 through to beginning of 2016 largely stemmed from asking the question that no one seemed to ask – why does the Yen and Japanese Government Bonds rally whenever there is a crisis? The obvious answer was capital flows from Japan would create a bull market in the area they flowed to, and then when the Japanese pulled capital back, it would create a bear market, often with significant currency volatility. Armed with that observation, and combined with analysis of the commodity markets, we build a portfolio that was largely short emerging market and long bonds.

Since 2016, using the same analysis as above, Japanese capital flows have almost exclusively been to the US, and are an order of magnitude larger than anything seen before. And yet, US equities still power ahead, Yen remains weak, and currency volatility has been consigned to the history books. Of course, I asked myself why this is. Why did a model that worked so well, for the best part of 25 years, stop working?

The obvious answer is that central banks led Quantitative Easing (QE). But that answer alone seems insufficient to me. Japan has had low interest rates for years and was still racked by bouts of extreme equity and currency volatility. The other problem with that answer is that the big inflation spike seen this year should then lead to greater volatility in equities, especially as central banks dial back QE programs.

The answer for me comes from China. China wants a strong currency, and to keep consumption strong. It seems to me that the Chinese government uses it extraordinary control of the economy to control activity and the currency through the commodity markets. To elaborate, I expected China to post a weak trade surplus in October, and for currency devaluation fears to spike (particularly after the recent Evergrande selloff). Chinese trade surplus was actually very strong. And it was strong because Chinese imports of oil and iron ore were down significantly. Chinese steel production was down a stunning 20% year on year, a number you would typically only see in a bad recession.

China has effectively taken control of key commodities, and now adjusts volumes to suit its own needs. Taking all this volatility through physical markets, has essentially collapsed financial market volatility, and also led to commodity currencies being significantly weaker than commodity prices – which has been a problem for me this year.

Now I understand this, non-obvious trades at the beginning of the year such as long oil, short iron ore now seem obvious. The surprising weakness of gold and other precious metals can make sense in this analysis. It also explains why the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies of the US have not been met with greater commodity or bond turbulence. It is very hard for me to get bearish US treasuries when I see Chinese steel production down 20% year on year.

The big question then is whether this Chinese policy of absorbing financial risk in the physical economy sustainable? History suggests not, as most countries prefer to devalue than slow economic growth. However, I can see reasons why China may continue with this policy. The most powerful is that with US policymakers seemingly unable to raise interest rates, or balance budgets there is a gap in the market for a credible currency. Is China making a play for reserve currency status?

And this is why I am returning capital. Markets have now become a political choice. US markets are essentially a bet on the Fed unable to raise rates, and congress unable to regulate big tech or raise corporate tax rates. Commodity markets have now become a bet on Chinese policy objectives, and currencies have become a bet on what Chinese policy objectives are too.

Give me an economic problem, then I can properly gauge risk. Give me a Chinese political problem – I am taking a guess as much as the next person. Did I think Alibaba was going to fall 50% this year? No, not until the Chinese government told me to think that way. Is Alibaba a good short now? I have no idea, and like everyone else will have to wait to see what the Chinese government says.

So, I think it time to step back, have a think about where we are going, and then come back when I can see an opportunity for my skill set. Perhaps that’s never, but I doubt it. The only constant in life is change. This will be my final newsletter and it just leaves me to thank you for your support and wish you all the success in the future. From a personal perspective I plan to keep producing research, so keep an eye out for my future notes. Russell.
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Писане by Money Чет Ное 11, 2021 5:35 pm

Реакцията е meh, ама ако Фед направи policy mistake-а да дига лихви, хич няма да е meh…


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Писане by Money Чет Ное 11, 2021 1:57 pm

Според мене хайковете в случая са безсмислени и ако ги направят наистина пазарът ще реагира доста негативно.
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Писане by pipbel Чет Ное 11, 2021 1:40 pm

Ще чакаме бурна година 2022.
Хайковете ще са по ранни вероятно и по зле ще се преглъщат от пазара, понеже няма да са свързани със силна или прегряваща икономика, а с инфлацията.
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Писане by Money Чет Ное 11, 2021 12:08 pm

Inflation getting worse before it gets better…

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Писане by Money Вто Ное 09, 2021 9:02 am

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За сега няма грам tightening ; ) Поне според индекса на Goldman-ите.
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Писане by Money Нед Ное 07, 2021 10:52 pm

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Писане by Money Нед Ное 07, 2021 1:01 pm

Има риск Китай да влезе в една много по-истинска стагфлация от щатите... Имам предвид, че там, в Китай, и стаг- и -флацията може да се окаже, че ще траят доста по-дълго.


Bloomberg написа:China’s inflation risks are building while new Covid-19 outbreaks are dimming the outlook for economic growth, throwing the spotlight back on policy makers as the Communist Party’s top leaders gather for a crucial political meeting this week.

Inflation data Wednesday is set to show another surge in factory-gate prices to a fresh 26-year high and a pick-up in costs for consumers. More companies are starting to pass on higher raw-material costs to customers, while vegetable prices have recently spiked because of bad weather.
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Писане by Money Нед Ное 07, 2021 10:50 am

Не изглежда да е подходящ момента за шортене на пазара...


FT написа:Evidence that the US economy is pulling itself out of the pandemic-induced downturn further bolstered sentiment, with the latest jobs report showing a pick-up in job growth across nearly all sectors after several months of more lacklustre gains. More than 500,000 new positions were created in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 per cent in a move that exceeded economists’ expectations.

We are on the train to normal,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “We are not quite there yet but we are certainly moving in the right direction. Growth is re-accelerating and it’s helped by the new developments in Covid treatment.”
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Писане by Money Съб Ное 06, 2021 10:31 am

Пип, ето това ти е японификацията - stuck with low inflation and low growth.


FT Editorial Board написа:
Investors have periodically asked how interest can possibly go lower, only for rates to plumb new depths. Yet this time the multi-decade investment trend may really, finally, be coming to an end. Despite a small rally, this week could mark the end of the bond bull run as central banks begin the long, slow tightening cycle and the long-awaited “normalisation” of monetary policy. If it does not, then policymakers have even more reason to worry as it would probably indicate that the rich world is stuck with low inflation and low growth.



Проблемът е, че за сега наративът за връщане към пред-пандемичната парадигма доминира (което го виждаш в реакцията на 10YR UST, т.е. падащи дългосорчни лихви). Единственият изход, разбира се, е малко като поотшумят supply-chain disruptions да се гласуват много по-големи фискали стимули от смешките, които гласуваха вчера.  


FT Editorial Board написа:Traders and central bankers alike are understandably cautious that the more fundamental trends behind the slowdown have not gone away, whether technological change, globalisation or the ageing of western societies. But that is an argument for long-term rates to stay relatively low, even in more normal times, and not for them to fall further: none of these factors became any more deflationary during the pandemic. In fact, China’s changing role in the global economy is potentially reducing one source of disinflationary pressure. Overall, the bull case for bonds, now, is the bear case for the rest of the world — this week’s shifts in monetary policy reflect a relatively robust recovery from the pandemic.
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Писане by Money Пет Ное 05, 2021 5:12 pm

Спадането на 10YR UST ме изненадва. Но това един от случаите, в които мога само да се радвам, че очакванията ми не се сбъдват. Ниски дългосрочни лихви, това е добре за акциите.

Само да не вземе 10YR UST да отскочи повечко на един по-късен етап. Някак си, все си мисля, че пазарът трябва да дойде на себе си в един момент...
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Писане by Money Сря Ное 03, 2021 7:56 pm

Тейпъринг на живо...

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Писане by Money Вто Ное 02, 2021 3:36 pm

Недостига на чипове може да доведе до рецесия... по принцип не е невъзможно, особено в страна като Германия или по-малки държави, в които автомобилната индустрия е една от водещите. В щатите по- не ми се вярва това да стане.

А може дори и България да засегне.

NYT написа:The shock waves from the semiconductor crisis, which is forcing virtually all carmakers to eliminate shifts or temporarily shut down assembly lines, could be strong enough to push some countries into recession. In Japan, home of Toyota and Nissan, parts shortages caused exports to fall by 46 percent in September compared with a year earlier — a potent demonstration of the car industry’s importance to the economy.



NYT написа:For every car or truck that does not roll off an assembly line in Detroit, Stuttgart or Shanghai, jobs are in jeopardy. They may be miners digging ore for steel in Finland, workers molding tires in Thailand, or Volkswagen employees in Slovakia installing instrument panels in sport utility vehicles. Their livelihoods are at the mercy of supply shortages and shipping chokeholds that are forcing factories to curtail production.

The auto industry accounts for about 3 percent of global economic output, and in carmaking countries like Germany, Mexico, Japan or South Korea, or states like Michigan, the percentage is much higher. A slowdown in automaking can leave scars that take years to recover from.
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Писане by Money (Admin) Пон Ное 01, 2021 7:19 pm

Не е global macro, но може да е интересно
















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Писане by Money Нед Окт 31, 2021 1:51 pm

Taper-инга се очаква да почне другата седмица, а Голдманите очакват core инфлазицята да остане на 4% до средата на следваща година.

Bloomberg написа:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now expect inflation will force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates next July, a year earlier than previously expected.

In a report to clients late Friday, economists led by Jan Hatzius said the Fed will raise its benchmark from a range of zero to 0.25% soon after it stops tapering its massive asset-purchase program.

The Goldman economists said the main reason for their new forecast was they now expect inflation to prove more stubborn than they previously thought. They now expect consumer price inflation outside of food and energy costs to still be above 4% when the taper ends.

“We think this will make a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes the path of least resistance,” they said in the report.
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Писане by Money Чет Окт 28, 2021 7:10 pm

Стагфлацията е това, което е било през 1970-те. Едно тримесечие с 2% растеж и 4% core CPI инфлация не е стагфлация.

Може да се каже и по друг начин. В днешно време хората под стагфлация разбират нещо различно от това, което до скоро се смяташе за стагфлация. Става и така.

#stagflation
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Писане by pipbel Чет Окт 28, 2021 3:43 pm

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance GDP estimate on Thursday. That was slowest since the second quarter of 2020, when the economy suffered a historic contraction in the wake of stringent mandatory measures to contain the first wave of coronavirus cases.

Eми ето ти - инфлация към 6% и само 2% растеж, т.е. поне 1 тримесечие на стагфлация е налице, най вероятно поне още 1 ще има.
Засега не мисля за повече че и тенекето общо взето си кротува и танталски от сума ти време се бори със съпротивата на 1790-1800, ама вземе ли да брейква - не е на добре работата, по длъжко ще е...
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Писане by Money (Admin) Пон Окт 25, 2021 8:36 pm

pipbel написа:
Money написа:

Пип, ти знаеш аз как го играя това с недвижимите имоти, през Home Depot и Lowe's. При това HD и LOW са много по-малко циклични и доста по-growth + dividend growth.


Да, така е , прилично прокси са, ама и предимствата които имат са отразени в щедрата им оценка. Лоу с 1 идея само по скромно. При следващия спих ще ги имам предвид, че обикновено падат и повече от пазара.

LOW ги взимах на $151, през ноември, мисля. P/E беше 19 и нещо. Както винаги, има и пост в реално време в investor-а, ама не ми се рови сега. Изглеждаха ми доста добра сделка. И така се оказа де. Вече 54% нагоре. Единственото съжаление, както винаги, защо не взех повече. Ама аз тогава имах нямах супер много кеш.

#LOW


Последната промяна е направена от Money (Admin) на Вто Дек 21, 2021 4:19 pm; мнението е било променяно общо 1 път
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Писане by pipbel Пон Окт 25, 2021 3:16 pm

Money написа:

Пип, ти знаеш аз как го играя това с недвижимите имоти, през Home Depot и Lowe's. При това HD и LOW са много по-малко циклични и доста по-growth + dividend growth.


Да, така е , прилично прокси са, ама и предимствата които имат са отразени в щедрата им оценка. Лоу с 1 идея само по скромно. При следващия спих ще ги имам предвид, че обикновено падат и повече от пазара.
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